Everybody knows that Garth Turner has joined the Liberals. Now, I'm going to skip the utter hypocrisy of this on Turner's part (other bloggers have been doing just fine on that front), and say why this may have been a smart move politically.
Now, I assume that most politicians want to get elected again, and that Turner is the same way. I seems that Turner made the proper calculations and realized that he was not going to get re-elected as a Independent. How come, you ask? It's quite simple: Turner would have split the Conservative vote and allow the Liberals to come up the middle. While it is true that Turner was trying to reach out to the progressive vote, I would say that those types of people would have stuck with the NDP and Liberals, even if they were generally all right with Turner.
So, what does Turner have to do to get re-elected, if he can't be an Independent?
Go with the Greens? No, they only get around 4,000 votes, so it would be the same situtation as running as an Independent. But if would be an option if Turner wanted to go out with a bang.
The NDP? They get about 2000 more votes then the Greens. Besides, could you imagine Turner in the NDP? Not really.
The Conservatives? He's kicked out forever.
The only option for Garth to survive the next election was the Liberals. And considering that the Liberals have consistently held the seat for years, it is possible for Turner to get re-elected under that banner.
But can this plan go horribly wrong for Turner? Yes, the Conservatives tend to be real close in taking this riding every election. So, it would depend on who the Conservatives nominate. If they nominate somebody that is a social conservative, the voters will get scared and the Conservatives can kiss Halton goodbye. But, if they nominate somebody that does not have a social agenda, then Halton may be a possible win for the Conservatives.
Was it a smart move by Turner? I guess the electorate will decide.