Sunday, November 26, 2006

Kennedy: Smart Or Stupid

It looks like that Gerard Kennedy has announced that he will not be supporting the nation resolution. But is this a smart or a stupid move?

First of all, he sticks out like a sore thumb on this one. The rest of the political leadership in Ottawa is for this motion. On one hand, this may be the key to attracting more supporters, like Warren Kinsella, for both the Liberal Leadership Race, and the next general election. On the other, he's given a good reason for people to hate him.

Second of all, he may have reduced his ability to unite the Liberals afterwards if he got elected. As many may know, the Liberals were quite divided over the nation resolution before the resolution was put to the House. I'd believe however, that Kennedy will still be more able to unite then Iggy or Rae, who will send chunks of present Liberals out of the Liberal Party like an large asteroid would send out chunks if it hit the Earth (this is one theory on how the Moon formed).

Third of all, he may have solidified himself as the "guy who cannot win Quebec". But to be blunt, I don't think he really has to. My look into the formation of majority governments shows that Quebec is a dead zone for all federalist parties, and to win big, the Liberals need to retain Ontario and gain in the West. Kennedy looks like the best man to do so.

Finally, he has put himself as a person who is willing to make tough decisions. For a person I thought kept on spouting fluffy cliché slogans with no real meaning to them, this is a major step in disproving that thought. But then again, he did take a couple of days consulting with experts to come up with this decision.

So, smart or stupid? I can't tell the future, but right now Kennedy looks like he made a smart decision.


wilson61 said...

Gerard does not have a seat (no vote), nor Quebec support.
It was an easy decision when you have nothing to lose.

Gregory D. Morrow said...

Knowing Gerard, I don't think this is a calculated move. After all, he was trying to isolate the Quebec resolution from the leadership politics because it was too important to rush to judgment. Gerard, as something of a pan-Canadian himself, believes in the equality of Canadian citizenship. I don't know whether it will help or hurt his leadership chances. It will be tough for him to give a speech in the den of the lion -- that is, to walk into Montreal and argue against the Quebec/nation resolution. But I suspect he will speak passionately and people will understand why he took this position. Then the chips will fall where they may...