It seems that Bloc Quebecois MP Benoit Sauvageau has died in a car crash. I send my condolences to his family. But first off, I'd like to say that the resulting by-election is going to be very interesting.
First of all, the new Green Leader, Elizabeth May, has said that she would run in a byelection if one became available. It looks like one just did. So unless she wants everybody to call her a "flipper-flopper", she is going to have to run. I have the feeling that she will not earn many votes because she is an anglophone from outside of Quebec.
Second of all, Michael Fortier, the Conservative cabinet minister famous for not being a MP, but a Senator, may be shamed into running for the riding, which contains a Northern Montreal suburb. Considering that Fortier was appointed to represent the Montreal area, the Conservatives would have a hard time explaining why he did not snap up the chance to run in this election.
Finally, this by-election shall be a indicator to see how much the Conservatives have grown in Quebec. This by-election will be totally different for the Conservative than the 2006 election because this time, the Conservatives can point to its Quebec seat and say that it has the possibility of winning. Remember, voters like to elect somebody that they think that can win. I'd also like to point to the election results. The Conservatives were in second place, albeit with a large gap. But have a look at the Conservative candidate: he was a university student, a sacrificial lamb in other terms (and yes, it ticks me off to see that youth have no real chance in getting elected). Imagine if the Conservatives had a high quality candidate, like say, Fortier.
If the Bloc gets this seat with the same large majority as it did in the 2006 election, the status quo in Parliament will probably stay the same. However, if the Conservatives win or even lose in a close race, prepare for a future Conservative Majority.
3 comments:
One thing to also keep in mind is that the Conservative party has a very nice nest egg in their coffers as they have been running financial drives non-stop for quite a while.
The Bloc should take the seat again, meaning May ought to run just for experience, and when/if she loses, she'll have a good reason other than people saying the party just isn't interesting to Quebecers. Fortier should run too, and when he loses, then we can bug Harper's hypocrisy more. It's win win for the losers.
But the thing, Saskboy, is that I'm not sure if the Bloc will take the seat again. I think it could be likely, as byelections tend to act as a referedum on the current government, but, as I said, it think any byelection would be a completely different ball game than the 2006 election for the Conservatives.
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